How to Measure and Demonstrate GLP-1 Savings: Moving from Modeled Projections to Real-World Analysis

As employers look for ways to control rising GLP-1 costs, the first step is to demand a higher standard from your benefit partners when calculating GLP-1 savings. While modeled projections are common (Virta uses them too), the real proof and gold standard employers deserve is actual claims-based analysis. 

To help employers take control of GLP-1 costs, Virta is leading the way with a new analysis that goes beyond modeled projections to quantify real-world GLP-1 savings based on past medical and pharmacy claims. 

Claims-based savings analysis is the only way to accurately quantify the total cost of weight-loss care with and without GLP-1s.

First, let me explain why that distinction matters for employers looking to drive sustainable GLP-1 cost control.

What’s the difference between modeled projections vs. real-world analysis?

• Modeled projections are forward-looking and use hypothetical cohorts based on previous clinical trials to forecast future health expenses. 
• Real-world analyses are retrospective and rely on actual expenditures using past medical claims, electronic medical records, and observational data.

While modeled projections can be useful, employers should be cautious about relying on projections alone without real-world outcomes to support them. 

For example, early models based on the original clinical trials conducted by pharmaceutical firms projected significant downstream healthcare savings from GLP-1s. However, in the real world, GLP-1 users demonstrated poor medication adherence and less weight loss, completely undermining initial savings projections. ²

This disconnect underscores why employers should look beyond modeled projections and demand real-world claims evidence to validate the savings they can expect from a vendor.

How does Virta’s real-world analysis demonstrate GLP-1 cost control?

In a new analysis, Virta quantifies the actual cost impact of the Virta for Weight Loss+ program.

Our GLP-1 for weight loss solution, Virta for Weight Loss+ delivers clinical nutrition support to optimize outcomes as an alternative to GLP-1s, alongside or after GLP-1s. 

The Total Cost of Care analysis¹ demonstrates Virta’s impact on healthcare costs by comparing Virta members with a similar group of non-Virta members. The real-world analysis uses medical and pharmacy claims to match members based on factors such as demographics, health conditions, medication use, and healthcare spending before Virta. 

Virta for Weight Loss+ demonstrates actual GLP-1 savings

Our real-world claims analysis of 12,308 Virta members from 3 large employer clients shows:

• Virta saved $5,600 per engaged member per year in total healthcare costs¹
• $5.6 million for 1,000 engaged employees¹

Actual GLP-1 savings come from medical and pharmacy cost reductions, as well as avoided GLP-1 costs. 

How is Virta able to drive these GLP-1 cost savings?

Virta’s fundamentally different approach to weight loss and GLP-1 care drives real savings for employers. Here’s how:

• Personalized clinical nutrition: Based on clinical needs, individual biomarkers, and member goals, we create personalized nutrition pathways that support members during, after, and without GLP-1s. 

• Responsible GLP-1 prescribing and medication optimization: By requiring labs, clinical intake, and ongoing adherence tracking (like weight and injection logging to unlock refills), we ensure medication access for members who are clinically eligible, motivated, and engaged.

• Continuous remote care: Unlike traditional care, which relies on infrequent, reactive PCP visits, Virta’s prescribing providers monitor members daily. This lets us adjust dosages, manage side effects in real time, and identify early signals of weight regain.

• A proven pathway to less medication: Virta is the only solution with a physician-guided pathway to help members stop taking GLP-1s once they hit clinical health milestones, no longer want to take them, or can no longer tolerate them.  Read more about Virta’s peer-reviewed study proving its approach as an effective off-ramp from GLP-1s for sustained weight loss.

How does clinical nutrition change the economics of weight loss and GLP-1 care?

Ultimately, the most effective way to lower healthcare costs is to help people improve their health and maintain those improvements over time. 

Virta's clinical nutrition changes the economics of weight loss by:

• Reducing hunger cravings and helping members feel satisfied
• Personalizing their nutrition plan with foods they enjoy and changes they can stick with
• Using continuous remote biomarker monitoring to adjust their individual nutrition plan and adapt over time. 

Because our personalized clinical nutrition approach is easier for members to follow and stick with in the real world, we see the following outcomes with and without GLP-1s.

With GLP-1s:

• 37% increase in weight loss when GLP-1s + the Virta Method's approach to clinical nutrition are paired together.³ 

Without GLP-1s:

• GLP-1-like outcomes (13% weight loss)⁴ with clinical nutrition alone 
• And when 60% choose nutrition only, that saves the employer the GLP-1 cost altogether.⁵

In fact, Virta’s clinical nutrition and care team provides a viable alternative for members who prefer a medication-free option or for employers who choose not to cover GLP-1s for weight loss. 

Towards real GLP-1 savings for employers

In summary, Virta’s real-world, claims-based analysis shows employers that our unique clinical nutrition approach, combined with support, drives real GLP-1 savings. When evaluating potential benefit partners, employers should demand more real-world, claims-based analysis rather than modeled projections alone to effectively drive GLP-1 savings.

To learn how Virta for Weight Loss+ can generate GLP-1 cost savings for your organization, download Virta’s new Total Cost of Care Claims Analysis. 

Related Resources

Is your GLP-1 strategy built for lasting outcomes? [Checklist]

How to Turn GLP-1s into Lasting Outcomes [Guide]

The Hidden Cost of Waiting: Why Now Is The Time to Act on GLP-1s and Metabolic Health [Blog]